Analysis of Public Sales Commitments of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Manufacturers and Expected Volumes

Published Dec 2021

Established original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that have built their business model around the internal combustion engine are beginning to shift their focus toward zero-emission transportation technologies. OEM commitments to zero-emission technologies are a step in the right direction but are still not sufficient to enable 100% ZE-MHDV sales by 2040, the ambition set forth by leading nations in the Global Memorandum of Understanding on zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (ZE-MHDVs).

This study seeks to:

  1. Map the level of penetration, regional presence, and ambition of ZE-MHDV commitments by leading OEMs;
  2.  Approximate the speed at which OEMs must ramp up their ZE-MHDV manufacturing and sales to achieve their internal commitments and a potential scenario of 100% ZE-MHDV sales by 2040; and
  3.  Identify the potential market gap for ZE-MHDVs that could exist if OEMs without commitments fall short of electrifying their vehicle offerings.

The featured graphic below illustrates the projected future sales of manufacturers offering zero-emission vehicles and highlights a key gap where market share could be captured from OEMs that have not formalized a commitment to zero-emission vehicles.

ZE-MHDV Sales Gap Assuming Strong Performing Born-ZEV OEMs

Author: Ricardo Garcia Coyne, Owen MacDonnell, and Cristiano Façanha PhD.
Organization: CALSTART