Established original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that have built their business model around the internal combustion engine are beginning to shift their focus toward zero-emission transportation technologies. OEM commitments to zero-emission technologies are a step in the right direction but are still not sufficient to enable 100% ZE-MHDV sales by 2040, the ambition set forth by leading nations in the Global Memorandum of Understanding on zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (ZE-MHDVs).

This study seeks to:

1. Map the level of penetration, regional presence, and ambition of ZE-MHDV commitments by leading OEMs;
2.  Approximate the speed at which OEMs must ramp up their ZE-MHDV manufacturing and sales to achieve their internal commitments and a potential scenario of 100% ZE-MHDV sales by 2040; and
3.  Identify the potential market gap for ZE-MHDVs that could exist if OEMs without commitments fall short of electrifying their vehicle offerings.

The featured graphic below illustrates the projected future sales of manufacturers offering zero-emission vehicles and highlights a key gap where market share could be captured from OEMs that have not formalized a commitment to zero-emission vehicles.

ZE-MHDV Sales Gap Assuming Strong Performing Born-ZEV OEMs