Global Sales Targets for Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Methods and Application

Published Feb 2022

This analysis establishes projections of global zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) sales targets through 2050 in alignment with the recently launched Global Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for trucks and buses. Recognizing that medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are responsible for a disproportionate share of on-road fuel consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and a vast majority of health-threatening pollutants, accelerated efforts must be made to shift away from diesel-powered to cleaner, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) alternatives. The adverse impact of MHDVs will only be exacerbated with the progression of time and inaction, as these vehicles are projected to continue to increase in volumes across global markets, defining the way freight and people are transported.

This analysis uses CALSTART’s Drive to Zero Market Projection Model to estimate the adoption rate of on-road ZE-MHDVs across countries. The tool is an interactive and user-friendly input-output model that incorporates the beachhead strategy to forecast ZE-MHDVs in different regional markets by vehicle segments. The model uses five input parameters, namely: technology readiness, fleet bias, supply scalability, infrastructure availability, and fleet innovation profile.

Results show early adoption for buses and passenger shuttles/vans, followed by single-unit trucks for urban and regional delivery and short/regional haul tractors, tailed closely by pickups/SUVs (Figure ES-1). These results reflect the timing for technology readiness of ZE technologies for different vehicle vocations, types and weights, and recognize that ZE technologies can be transferred across vehicle types as technologies evolve and costs decrease. Further along in the adoption timeline are more specialized vehicles like refuse and construction trucks, as well as mobile homes, all of which represent a relatively small, specialized share of MHDVs.

Figure ES-1: ZE-MHDV Sales Targets by Segment

 

 
Author: Baha Al-Alawi PhD., Owen MacDonnell, Cristiano Façanha PhD.
Organization: CALSTART