GLOBAL MOU ON ZE-MHDVS – THEMATIC DEEP DIVE SERIES #1: TECHNOLOGY READINESS AND ECONOMICS

Published Jul 2022

Under the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (Global MOU), leading nations are now working collaboratively to enable 100% zero-emission new truck and bus sales by 2040 with an interim goal of 30% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030.

To support Global MOU implementation and engage with prospective MOU country signatories, the Netherlands and CALSTART’s Drive to Zero are hosting a series of six invitation-only “thematic deep dive” discussions. Our goal is to share data, tools and resources, connect countries with leading technology and business experts who can support signatories in advancing their zero-emission medium-and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) ambitions through strong policies, programs, incentives and pilot projects. The first thematic deep dive on technology and economics of ZE-MHDVs is available to view here. The first discussion centered on the current and upcoming technology readiness and economics of different ZE-MHDV technologies and key findings were summarized in this briefing.

Key findings

  • Zero-emission technology is ready for most MHDV applications –  The technology will soon be ready for all truck applications (i.e., we don’t need to wait 10+ years) and present ranges meet or exceed the ranges required by most routes for trucks, buses, and vans on the road. These vehicles also have comparable hauling capacity to their ICE counterparts, and using the guidance and direction of the beachhead strategy to inform the approach to vehicle segmentation, targeted deployments in conducive vocational settings will result in more efficient operations, cleaner air, and cost savings for fleets.
  • Cost parity will be achieved by 2030 for the vast majority of truck and bus applications – All electric vehicles segments are expected to break the TCO parity threshold by 2030 according to most current research studies. The economic advantages of ZEVs are already proving themselves in select regions with favorable conditions. Urban vehicles and those with lighter, regional duty cycles are well positioned to reduce costs for fleets who are looking to save on fuel and reduce emissions.
  • Technology choices should not delay implementation – While battery electric and hydrogen can coexist in the long term (and the market is the best to decide which technology is best for which application), there are already readily available technologies to meet near-term needs. Real-world data indicate that battery electric technology will attend most applications and have the most promising TCO. strong policies and coordination are needed to provide market certainty and boost confidence.
 
Author: Owen MacDonnell, Cristiano Façanha PhD., Bill Van Amburg
Organization: CALSTART