Technology and Commercialization Pathways for Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles in China

Published May 2022

This analysis establishes projections of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (ZE-MHDV) sales targets through 2050 for the People’s Republic of China in alignment with the recently launched Global Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for trucks and buses. Recognizing that medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are responsible for a disproportionate share of on-road fuel consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and a vast majority of health-threatening pollutants, accelerated efforts must be made to shift away from diesel-powered to cleaner, zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) alternatives. The adverse impact of MHDVs will only be exacerbated with the progression of time and inaction, as these vehicles are projected to continue to increase in volumes across global markets, defining the way freight and people are transported.

This analysis uses CALSTART’s Drive to Zero Market Projection Model to estimate the adoption rate of on-road ZE-MHDVs in China. The model uses five input parameters, namely: technology readiness, fleet bias, supply scalability, infrastructure availability, and fleet innovation profile. The ZE-MHDV sales targets projections in this analysis present a vision for the future of transportation technology in the Chinese market. The current ambitions established by the Chinese government do not accurately reflect the realities of the technology, economics and operational feasibility of these vehicles in a region that is leading the charge from the perspective of sales and deployments.

ZE-MHDV Sales Targets by Vehicle Segment – China

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Author: Baha M. Al-Alawi PhD., Owen MacDonnell, Cristiano Façanha, PhD.
Organization: CALSTART
Regional focus: