ZE-MHDV Model Availability Growing
The number of zero-emission truck and bus models on the market now or in the near future will grow nearly 26% from 2020 until the end of 2022 (from 433 models to 544 models) in key global markets*.
Zero-emission medium-duty step vans are tracking 120% growth (10 models to 22) over the same time period. Growth of models in zero-emission school buses are of particular note for the North American market – rising 143% (7 models in 2020 to 17 models by 2022). Heavy-duty truck models are tracking 56% growth from 2020 to 2022 (39 models to 61 models). And, by far the overall model leader and the most established zero-emission application, zero-emission transit buses are expected to end 2022 with 262 available models – a steady 6% rise between 2020 and 2022 (247 models to 262 models), a majority of which are available in the Chinese market.
Globally, the strongest model availability growth rates come from zero-emission school buses and medium-duty step vans, both platforms considered “foundational technologies” for the overall zero-emission truck and bus segment under Drive to Zero’s “Beachhead Strategy.” Growing these model types and other foundational technologies first is key to accelerating the segment because components in these types of vehicles can be used in other, more specialized vehicle types.
Model Availability to Follow Upward Trajectory
In order to maximize the zero-emission truck and bus vehicle segment growth in key regions, national governments must adopt aligned policies, regulations, incentives, infrastructure investments, and pilot projects targeting ZETs and ZEBs. Although the available data suggests the United States and Canada combined appear to rival global zero-emission vehicle leader China* in terms of model availability, China represents the vast majority of the ZEB market globally by deployments. China far exceeds North America in adoption with an estimated more than 400,000 ZEBs operating in the nation. The United States records 3,533 ZEBs and 1,215 ZETs deployed** in the nation, with a large portion of those vehicles on the road in California.
A newly released paper for CALSTART highlights the technical feasibility of nations adopting a 100% zero-emission commercial new vehicle sales target by the year 2040. “The United States is falling far short of what is needed in terms of sales if we hope to reach ambitious 30% zero-emission truck and bus sales by 2030 and 100% zero-emission sales by 2040, which has been adopted by a number of leading nations,” said MacDonnell. In order to reach the 30% zero-emission truck and bus sales target by 2030 the United States would have to leap from fewer than 5-thousand ZETs and ZEBs in the nation to a sales target of 593,303 zero-emission medium-and heavy-duty vehicles by 2030.
*Data around the number of manufacturers in China is limited and research is ongoing to capture these manufacturers.
**This report defines the adoption of transit ZEBs as those that have been funded, ordered, delivered, or deployed.
OEMs Growing Globally Across Vehicle Segments
When breaking down the zero-emission truck and bus segment by vehicle type, the highest number of OEMs can be found in the ZE transit bus, MD truck and HD truck vehicle types. This concentration of manufacturers around these foundational zero-emission vehicle technologies is encouraging. Drive to Zero’s Beachhead Strategy outlines the importance of growing these segments because the components that go into these vehicle types can be used in other vehicles. “Although some leading markets – like California, Canada, and Austria – are creating supportive ecosystems to accelerate this vehicle segment, leading global markets like the United States, Germany, and China must do more,” said CALSTART Program Manager Owen MacDonnell.
The key policies, programs and actions that make up California’s ecosystem include (but are not limited to) the Advanced Clean Truck rule, California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP), the Innovative Clean Transit Rule, and Low Carbon Fuels Standard. In addition, the Golden State is an endorser of the Global Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (ZE-MHDVs),
Global ZET Median Range & Battery Capacity growing
Ranges for zero-emission trucks (ZETs) are improving year-to-year. Medium-duty ZETs, medium-duty step vans, and cargo vans on the market in 2022 come in with median ranges of 246km/153mi , 214km/133mi, and 234km/146mi respectively, according to manufacturer data*. This allows zero-emission trucks to meet a growing variety of delivery duty cycles.
As zero-emission technologies grow more efficient, heavy-duty ZETs are now available with increasing variety and improved performance. According to manufacturer data, heavy-duty ZETs on the market in 2022 now boast a median range of 300km/186mi*, and will soon include a mix of battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric options. Range-leaders for HD-ZETs available today include Volvo’s VNR, and Freightliner’s eM2 106 and eCascadia.
More Manufacturers Entering the Market
Ranges for ZEBs are increasing year-to-year. According to a United States Department of Energy database, the median daily distance battery-electric buses travel has been steadily rising from 2016 to 2021 – starting at a median average of 85km/52.95mi per day in 2016 to 201km/ 124.97mi daily in 2021.
According to manufacturer data, zero-emission transit buses on the market in 2022 have a median range of 282km/175mi* with a number of manufacturers reporting ranges greater than 300km/185mi. Roughly half of ZEBs available in 2022 have a manufacturer reported range between 218km/135.5 miles and 388km/241.2 miles, sufficient for many transit operations.
According to manufacturer data, ZEB school buses and shuttle buses are found to have a median of 208km/130mi and 200km/125mi range respectively. To put the school bus range in context, case studies from the State of California identify median route lengths of 48km-71km (30mi-44mi) in urban districts and route lengths of up to 121km/75mi in rural areas, meaning ZE school buses on the market today boast ranges that could easily complete studied routes.
*Battery range in real life conditions is impacted by duty-cycle, climate, vehicle maintenance and a number of other factors.
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