China has committed to become carbon neutral by 2060, have 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2050, and peak national emissions by 2030. Technology and policy roadmaps are being developed to inform how China can achieve these targets. Because commercial vehicles represent a substantial share of transportation emissions, ambitious targets for zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (ZE-MHDVs) will be critical to meet China’s climate goals. This digital dialogue will present two recent published studies to help China to raise its ambition towards ZE-MHDVs and maintain its current leadership position in ZEV production. 

• Technology and commercialization pathways and timing for ZE-MHDVs in China. This analysis establishes ZE-MHDV sales projections for China in alignment with ambitious global targets, considering technology and market readiness for different bus and truck segments in China. The analysis concludes that the current ambition established by the Chinese government do not accurately reflect the reality of the technology, economics and operational feasibility of these vehicles in a region that is leading the world in current vehicle deployments. China is well positioned to leverage its current leadership position, align with global targets, and maintain its leadership position. 
• Zero-emission truck real-world performance in U.S. and Europe and implications for China. This analysis compiles and evaluates real-world performance from current zero-emission truck deployments in U.S. and Europe, and recommend key lessons to China based on the American and European experience to accelerate ZE-MHDVs. Those include strong targets to maintain Chinese leadership, strong regulations to provide market certainty, extension of targeted and timebound incentives, prioritization of zero-emission tailpipe technologies with the continuation of investments in battery-electric technologies, and leveraging zero-emission bus investments to accelerate zero-emission trucks. 

Ultimately we would like to support China’s participation and leadership in the Global MOU for ZE-MHDVs, under which 16 leading countries have committed to 30% of MHDV sales being zero emissions by 2030, and 100% by 2040. We believe those targets are not only technologically feasible but will also result in climate, air pollution, economic, and energy security benefits. 

This project builds upon CALSTART’s Global Commercial Drive to Zero program, which aims to enable and accelerate the growth of global ZE-MHDVs, and counts on the support from 19 countries, including China.

Agenda:

CONTACTS:

Yin Qiu, 202.746.2328, yqiu@calstart.org

Owen MacDonnell, +1.347.615.9232, omacdonnell@calstart.org

Roxanna Smith (media contact), +1 510.326.0390, roxanna.smith@globaldrivetozero.org