Experts, innovation leaders laud new technologies, increasing ranges; note ZEB and ZET sales falling short of needed targets to reach climate goals
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PASADENA, Calif. – Model availability and driving ranges of zero-emission trucks (ZETs) and zero-emission buses (ZEBs) continue to grow globally in the midst of economic and supply chain challenges brought on by COVID. New data shows the number of zero-emission truck and bus models on the market now or in the near future will grow nearly 26% from 2020 until the end of 2022 (from 433 models to 544 models) in key global markets. This new data is being unveiled today at an online event by CALSTART’s Global Commercial Vehicle Drive to Zero program and campaign (Drive to ZeroTM) and featuring manufacturing innovators, Scania and BYD, as well as global fleet DHL.
“Seeing a healthy increase in model availability during a time of instability and heavily challenged supply chains confirms the commitment from several top manufacturers for zero-emission vehicles,” said Dr. Cristiano Façanha, CALSTART’s Global Director and lead of Drive to Zero. “We cannot afford to hit the pause button on these vehicles, they are critical to achieving global net-zero by 2050 goals.”
“Scania strongly supports accelerating the shift towards sustainable transport. Electrifying heavy commercial transport is key to limiting the worst impacts of climate change in the coming decades,” said Peter Forsberg, Head of e-Trucks Solutions for Scania. “Scania now offers a wide range of fully electric vehicles and we are testing fully electric trucks in operations, like heavy and long-distance transport, that were very recently considered out of reach for electrification.”
Globally, the strongest model availability growth rates are being tracked in the zero-emission school buses and medium-duty step vans vehicle types. Zero-emission medium-duty step vans are tracking 120% growth (10 models to 22) from 2020 to 2022. Over the same time period, zero-emission school buses – of particular note for the North American market – rose 143% (7 models in 2020 to 17 models by 2022). Heavy-duty trucks are tracking 56% growth from 2020 to 2022 (39 models to 61 models).
“DHL has been an early mover in fleet electrification because we see it as a key factor in achieving our net zero emission aspirations, and in serving our customers,” said Jim Monkmeyer, President of Transportation, DHL Supply Chain. “As cities move increasingly toward zero-emission transit zones and national governments set ambitious emission reduction targets for transport, we will heed that signal to integrate more zero-emission trucks, delivery vans and other vehicles into our fleets.”
By far the overall model leader and the most established zero-emission application, zero-emission transit buses are expected to end 2022 with 262 available models (up from 247 in 2020) – a steady 6% rise between 2020 and 2022, the majority of which are available in the Chinese market.
In addition to model availability, driving ranges for zero-emission trucks (ZETs) are improving year-to-year. Medium-duty ZETs, medium-duty step vans, and cargo vans on the market in 2022 come in with median ranges of 246km/153mi, 214km/133mi, and 234km/146mi respectively, according to manufacturer data. This allows zero-emission trucks to meet a growing variety of delivery duty cycles. According to manufacturer data, heavy-duty ZETs on the market in 2022 now boast a median range of 300km/186mi, and will soon include a mix of battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric options.
ZEB ranges are also on the rise. According to manufacturer data, zero-emission transit buses on the market in 2022 have a median range of 280km/175mi with a number of manufacturers reporting ranges greater than 300km/185mi. Roughly half of zero-emission transit buses available in 2022 have a manufacturer-reported range of 218km/135.5 miles and 388km/241.2 miles, sufficient for many transit operations.
Breaking down the zero-emission truck and bus segment by vehicle type, the highest number of manufacturers can be found in the ZE transit bus, MD truck and HD truck vehicle types. This concentration of manufacturers around these foundational zero-emission vehicle technologies is encouraging. Drive to Zero’s Beachhead Strategy outlines the importance of growing the markets for these vehicle types because the components that go into these zero-emission vehicles can be used in other vehicles.
When comparing ZE model availability by region, the new data suggests the United States and Canada combined appear to rival global zero-emission vehicle leader China in terms of model availability. However, China represents the vast majority of the ZEB market globally by deployments. China far exceeds North America in adoption with an estimated more than 400,000 ZEBs operating in the nation. The United States records just 3,533 ZEBs and 1,215 ZETs in the nation, with a large portion of those vehicles on the road in California.
“California is using a combination of policies, regulations, incentives, infrastructure investments, and pilot projects to grow the marketplace for zero-emission trucks and buses. Fifteen nations around the world, including Canada and the UK, are supporting similar commitments through the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles,” said Alycia Gilde, Vice President, CALSTART. “Golden State policies such as the Advanced Clean Trucks Rule and the Innovative Clean Transit Rule signal timelines for the zero-emission transition, while incentives such as the state’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP) and the EnergIIZE Commercial Vehicles Project buy down vehicle and infrastructure costs needed to enable successful fleet deployment.”
“Leading global markets like the United States, Germany, and even global electric vehicle leader China must do more to address this sector. Globally, although freight trucks represent less than four percent of the on-road fleet, they contribute to about 27% of on-road fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions as well as 60% of on-road nitrogen oxides,” said Owen MacDonnell, Project Manager for CALSTART.
A recent CALSTART paper highlights the technical feasibility of nations adopting a 100% zero-emission commercial new vehicle sales target by the year 2040. “The United States is falling far short of what is needed in terms of sales if we hope to reach ambitious 30% zero-emission truck and bus sales by 2030 and 100% zero-emission sales by 2040, which has been adopted by a number of leading nations,” said MacDonnell. In order to reach the 30% zero-emission truck and bus sales target by 2030 the United States would have to leap from fewer than 5-thousand ZETs and ZEBs in the nation to a sales target of 593,303 zero-emission medium-and heavy-duty vehicles by 2030.
“Aligning public policy and funding as well as private business strategy, production, and investment toward achieving ambitious zero-emission vehicle adoption goals are all key to accelerating this critical segment overall and specifically in terms of sales,” Patrick Duan, Senior Vice President, Operations, BYD North America. “BYD is working collaboratively with partners in the public and private sector to increase global cooperation aimed at speeding the adoption of zero-emission vans, medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks, and also creating the charging infrastructure needed to support these vehicles.”
The new data presented in today’s event comes from Drive to Zero’s Zero-Emission Technology Inventory (ZETI), an interactive online tool that tracks the growth of the ZE commercial vehicles globally, as measured by model availability. Today Drive to Zero also launched a newly updated version of ZETI, which aims to provide fleets, governments and the public with comprehensive information including vehicle-specific specs, regions where zero-emission brands are available for purchase, and the timeline over which additional models are expected to become available. The updated tool allows users to view and “cut” the data in a number of new ways including viewing model availability by technology type as well as region. It will also enable users to compare various models and their features like range, payload and more.
Additional ZETI Analytics charts and explainers can be found HERE.
CALSTART | Changing transportation for good
A national nonprofit consortium with offices in New York, Michigan, Colorado and California, CALSTART partners with nearly 300 member companies and agency innovators to build a prosperous, efficient and clean high-tech transportation industry. We knock out barriers to modernization and the adoption of clean vehicles. CALSTART is changing transportation for good.
To align government and industry actions and ambition, CALSTART’s Drive to Zero program and campaign aims to enable and accelerate the growth of global zero-emission commercial vehicles, and enjoys the support of 130+ manufacturers, fleets, governments, and infrastructure providers.
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